To What Extent Can ASEAN’s Efforts Save Myanmar?
The ASEAN community appears to be shifting its focus on the Myanmar crisis after more than four years of political deadlock.
With both the military council and resistance forces locked in a prolonged standoff, ASEAN seems to be considering a dialogue-based strategy amid growing frustration over the lack of progress.
A veteran Myanmar political analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the shift reflects a broader trend. “With Malaysia holding the ASEAN chair this year, the bloc seems to be gradually moving toward re-engaging the junta,” the analyst noted.
Many ASEAN members, including Malaysia as the current chair, appear to have acknowledged that the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) has been largely ineffective over the past four years.
The analyst pointed out that ASEAN’s stance on Myanmar can be viewed through the divide between “Mainland ASEAN” and “Maritime ASEAN.”
“Mainland ASEAN is closer to China—a major power with strong influence over Myanmar, especially the junta—and may back the regime if it holds elections,” the analyst said.
Meanwhile, Maritime ASEAN—comprising Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia—is said to lean more toward Western positions and is less likely to support the junta.
Commenting on recent developments involving other key players, the analyst said, “After Indonesia’s new president took office, his deputy minister quietly visited Naypyidaw, though the military regime did not publicize the trip. Malaysia is now taking a new approach, while the Philippines will chair ASEAN next year, followed by Singapore.”
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who once strongly opposed Myanmar’s military coup and insisted the junta should not be recognized, appears to have adjusted his stance.
His recent efforts, however, have raised questions. Is re-engaging the junta and addressing the aftermath of Myanmar’s historic earthquake a viable path to resolving the country’s internal conflict?
On April 17—Myanmar’s traditional New Year—Prime Minister Anwar met with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra at the Rosewood Hotel in Bangkok. The talks reportedly focused on earthquake recovery efforts and prospects for peace in Myanmar.
Anwar is not acting alone. He has involved ASEAN and enlisted Thaksin, who has long-standing ties with Myanmar’s military leaders, to help facilitate internal peace efforts.
Notably, the junta raised no objection to a virtual meeting between ASEAN and National Unity Government (NUG) Prime Minister Mahn Win Khaing Than held on April 18. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing had reportedly been informed of the meeting in advance.
That meeting primarily aimed to ensure that international earthquake relief aid reaches victims directly. Throughout, Anwar was careful to avoid politicizing the talks.
He did not officially disclose the details of his meeting with the junta chief but publicly released his virtual meeting with the NUG prime minister. In that release, Anwar referred to Mahn Win Khaing Than using the Myanmar honorific “U”—a subtle yet respectful diplomatic gesture.
By doing so, Anwar managed to sidestep questions over ASEAN’s recognition of the junta and avoid provoking criticism from either side, offering a carefully balanced approach that many see as politically astute.
Regardless of high-level meetings, the most critical issue for Myanmar remains ensuring that humanitarian aid reaches those in desperate need.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim echoed this sentiment on social media following his meeting with Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.
“We had open and constructive discussions on the urgent need for temporary hospitals in Myanmar and the return of normalcy to the country,” Anwar stated.
However, the military council’s actions appear to contradict these diplomatic messages.
According to state media, the junta announced it had received 104.44 billion kyats in cash donations and 12.4 billion kyats worth of goods during a donation event held in Naypyidaw on April 1.
More than 20 international organizations have also pledged over $130 million in earthquake relief. Yet, countries including Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have made it clear they will not channel aid through the military regime, instead working with trusted humanitarian partners to reach victims directly.
Despite this influx of aid, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing declared on April 5 that families of those killed in the earthquake would receive only 1 million kyats per victim. As for damaged homes and buildings, he said assistance would be determined based on the extent of the destruction.
“This is quite surprising,” remarked a political analyst, noting the vast disparity between available resources and the junta’s actual disbursement.
A wide gap has emerged between the aid received for Myanmar’s earthquake victims and the amount actually being distributed. With the death toll approaching 4,000, the junta’s plan to provide 1 million kyats per victim amounts to only 4 billion kyats in compensation. Meanwhile, over 100 billion kyats in donations from military-aligned business tycoons and millions in international aid remain under the control of the military council.
This disparity has sparked concerns among the public and revolutionary forces that the remaining funds may be diverted to support military operations, especially as the junta suffers battlefield losses.
“It’s almost certain the junta will funnel earthquake aid into military expenses,” said an official with a People’s Defense Force (PDF) based in Magway Region.
A political and military analyst echoed this concern: “The junta chief will not fully allocate the aid to disaster relief. He needs foreign currency for military spending, and the regime’s reserves are dwindling.
These suspicions have grown amid renewed diplomatic engagement. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, currently serving as ASEAN’s rotating chair, recently met with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. The meeting has drawn both criticism and cautious hope, with the public urging Anwar to ensure aid is not misused.
“Legal or not, if this meeting truly helps the earthquake victims, it will benefit our people,” said a woman from Mandalay, one of the hardest-hit areas.
According to junta spokesperson Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Tun, 145 aircraft from 25 countries delivered aid between March 28 and April 20. In addition, 23 vehicles from China, five ships from India, and one from Bangladesh arrived with relief supplies. A total of 2,514.6 tons of aid and 1,197.12 tons of relief materials have reportedly entered the country.
But questions remain about the distribution of this aid. While some residents of Mandalay said they have received small amounts of relief, many have seen little to no assistance.
“I got a small quota of aid a few days ago,” said one Mandalay resident. “But it’s hard to believe all the aid is reaching the people—we haven’t seen much.”
One political analyst close to the junta expressed cautious optimism: “Because the damage was widespread, including in Naypyidaw, the relief supplies will likely reach people in affected areas.” However, he admitted he does not fully trust the junta’s subordinates to handle the distribution properly.
“There may be corruption and bribery among individual officials within the military council,” he noted.
Myanmar’s GDP under junta rule is estimated at around US$70 billion. Yet, economic analysts warn that the financial toll of the recent powerful earthquake could range anywhere from $10 billion to as high as $100 billion.
Rescue operations remain ongoing, with emergency crews still recovering bodies from the rubble. On April 23, junta-appointed Mandalay Chief Minister U Myo Aung called for intensified rescue efforts as he inspected earthquake-related damage in the region.
One expert drew comparisons to the devastation caused by Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which also struck during a period of military rule—underscoring fears that lessons from the past may once again go unheeded.
“We are still in the emergency rescue phase. The military council is incapable of handling reconstruction efforts,” he said. “Cyclone Nargis caused $4 billion in economic damage, but the current figure is significantly higher. On top of that, the country also endured severe destruction from last year’s devastating floods.”
“The current international aid system is also broken—partly because of Trump,” he added. “The UN can no longer provide aid effectively. The military council may have received around $190 million so far, and perhaps another $100 million is on the way. But beyond that, no further funding should be expected.”
This shortfall in aid—combined with incompetence, lack of goodwill, and widespread corruption at the grassroots level under junta chief Min Aung Hlaing and his top leadership—has become a growing source of anxiety for the people of Myanmar, particularly earthquake survivors.
During a visit to Sagaing and Mandalay on April 19, Min Aung Hlaing claimed he was acting “with good intentions” in response to the disaster.
But many in Myanmar see those intentions as hollow. In just four years under his rule, the country has become the poorest in ASEAN, according to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Can Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as ASEAN’s current chair, and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra succeed in delivering humanitarian aid directly to the people of Myanmar? Will junta chief Min Aung Hlaing, as in past meetings, put on a cooperative face while continuing his hardline actions behind the scenes? And will the millions in international earthquake relief funds, as many fear, be diverted to finance the military’s arms purchases?
A source close to the military council, who is also a political analyst, told CJ Platform that while international relief funds may not be directly used for military spending, the influx of foreign currency could be diverted in other ways. “The money might be used for fuel sales or injected into the currency market,” he said.
Already burdened by the hardships of the coup, the country and its people now face the added pressure of relentless natural disasters—pushed to the brink, as if teetering on the edge of the still-unpredictable Sagaing Fault.
For those who survived, life remains a form of entrapment—like being buried alive beneath the rubble. How long must they endure? Until the military junta collapses entirely? Until the Spring Revolution finally succeeds?