Decision on Lashio under Chinese Pressure
The three ethnic armed groups — the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Arakan Army (AA) — launched “Operation 1027” on October 27, 2023, more than two years after Myanmar’s Spring Revolution began in response to the military coup.
At the start of the operation, the Three Brotherhood Alliance and allied revolutionary forces attacked junta military camps across northern Shan State, including in Kutkai, Kyaukme, Muse, Namkham, Nawnghkio, Lashio, and Chinshwehaw. The offensive dealt a major blow to the military, posing serious threats and sparking fear among junta forces nationwide.
Just over two weeks later, in a show of support for Operation 1027, allied revolutionary forces in Karenni State launched two new offensives — Operation 1107 and Operation 1111 — capturing four towns and several military camps.
On January 10 and 11, 2024, more than 70 days after Operation 1027 began, with China’s intervention, representatives of the military-backed National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) and the Three Brotherhood Alliance held their third round of talks in China. The two sides reached an agreement to implement an immediate ceasefire, known as the Haigeng Agreement, which took effect at 9 p.m. on January 11.
The Haigeng Agreement — shaped overwhelmingly by Chinese pressure, according to sources — largely froze the frontlines after the revolutionary forces had captured at least 17 towns. (This count excludes towns in Rakhine State, those seized before October 27, and two towns later transferred to the United Wa State Army.)
Despite agreeing to the ceasefire under China’s urging, the military junta has continued to launch airstrikes during the truce, signaling little genuine commitment to a lasting peace.
Despite agreeing to a ceasefire, Myanmar’s military council did not fully halt its airstrikes, leading to the deaths of at least 100 civilians and monks during the initial phase of Operation 1027. More than five months later, on June 25, 2024, junta forces launched a renewed offensive on Kyaukme and Nawnghkio—towns held by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), one of the three allied ethnic armed groups. The attack marked the resumption of Operation 1027, described by some observers as a “sleeping tiger” stirring back to life.
The second phase of Operation 1027 began with a series of counter offensives. On August 3, 2024, more than a month after the renewed campaign began, the Three Brotherhood Alliance captured the junta’s Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters in Lashio, along with five towns — marking the first regional command-level defeat of the military council since the start of the Spring Revolution.
During the capture of Lashio, several high-ranking junta officials were taken prisoners, including Brigadier General Soe Tint, former commander of the Northeastern Regional Military Command; Brigadier General Myo Min Htwe, commander of No. 1 Operations Command; and Brigadier General Thant Htin Soe, the regional commander. The victory represented the military council’s first loss of a regional command in 75 years, since the Karen National Defense Organization (KNDO) seized the Northern Regional Military Command in Pyin Oo Lwin in 1949.
In response, the military junta replaced three top commanders and hastily reorganized units in a bid to retake key headquarters. Struggling to contain the revolutionary forces’ momentum, the junta reportedly sought support from China. Evidence of this emerged in December 2024, when more than 2,000 junta troops, previously stationed in Tant Yang, Man Kat, and Mong Hsat to defend Lashio, were redeployed to other battlefronts. These forces were equipped with Mi-35 helicopters and MiATR weaponry, suggesting a strategic realignment possibly bolstered by external assistance.
Following these developments, China closed several border gates, leading to shortages of goods in Kutkai, Tant Yang, Nawnghkio, and other areas across northern Shan State.
Facing a series of battlefield defeats, the junta army suffered a major humiliation following the fall of its key regional command in northern Shan State, earning the label of “international loser of the war.” In response, China intensified pressure on the Kokang army to agree to a ceasefire to restore the flow of goods across the border.
About five months after the capture of Lashio, Kokang leaders and representatives of the military junta signed a ceasefire agreement in Kunming, Yunnan Province, in the third week of January 2025. The agreement, brokered under Chinese mediation, came into effect on January 18, according to China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Following the historic victory, Lashio was administered as Special Region 1 by the Kokang-led Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). A Lashio Rehabilitation Team was formed, composed of political prisoners from Lashio Prison and staff from the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), to oversee health and public services in the city.
At the time, officials from the rehabilitation team stressed that, “It is only a ceasefire, not a retreat.”
The MNDAA and the rehabilitation team had completed approximately 75 percent of their planned recovery work in Lashio when, on January 30, about 10 days after the ceasefire took effect, a video went viral showing a person in an MNDAA uniform speaking Chinese from a stage. The video sparked anger among local residents and revolutionary forces.
For more than two months following the ceasefire, both the military junta and the MNDAA remained silent on the issue of troop withdrawals. However, the leader of the Lashio Rehabilitation Team later stated that MNDAA troops would begin withdrawing from Lashio in the first week of April.
On April 18, departmental staff from the junta’s administrative offices in Mongyai and Nam Pawng arrived in Lashio, taking up residence at the Two Elephants Hotel under the protection of Kokang police.
Just days earlier, the Lashio Rehabilitation Team and MNDAA forces had quietly withdrawn from Lashio, retreating toward the outskirts of Man Han and Nawnghlaing.
According to a source within the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), junta troops are expected to retake control of 12 neighborhoods in Lashio Township.
On April 21, following discussions between China’s special envoy to Myanmar, Deng Xijun, officials from the Kokang Army’s external relations office, and representatives of the military junta, Kokang Army flags were removed from Lashio. Territory previously secured by the Three Brotherhood Alliance and allied revolutionary forces was peacefully reclaimed by junta troops.
The meeting, held at the Two Elephants Hotel in Lashio, enabled the military council to regain control of the historic victory area without a single shot being fired.
Local sources reported that the United Wa State Army (UWSA) provided security for the junta forces as they entered Lashio, though Wa officials have denied this claim. While junta troops are now stationed in Lashio, MNDAA forces remain positioned around the city. In the event of a territorial dispute, Chinese observers and the influential Wa army are expected to intervene.
A ceasefire monitoring team has recently been deployed to Lashio to oversee the ceasefire between the military junta and the MNDAA, as well as to supervise the formal handover of Lashio, according to a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
China has also reinstated the military regime’s role in certifying legitimate cross-border trade, thereby highlighting the importance of maintaining trade flows between ethnic armed groups and revolutionary forces.
Speculation is growing that the junta leader may refrain from further military expansion and instead rely on Beijing to help reopen the vital Muse–Mandalay trade route.
Although Deng Xijun was personally involved in facilitating the military’s return to Lashio, China’s foreign ministry has insisted that it is not interfering in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
According to unconfirmed reports, during negotiations between the military junta and MNDAA representatives at the Two Elephants Hotel, junta officials requested the return of Hseni Township and raised the possibility of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) withdrawing from Kyaukme Township.
Residents of Lashio, who had endured more than eight months of devastating airstrikes and conflict, have now found themselves once again under military rule.
The fall of Lashio underscores China’s influential role among the shifting political factions that have emerged since the onset of the Spring Revolution.
Commenting on the return of Lashio to junta control, Nay Phone Latt, spokesperson for the Prime Minister’s Office of the National Unity Government (NUG), said, “I believe that the statements made by the ethnic armed groups during the anti-military regime struggle will continue because they are determined to root out the dictatorship. That is why I do not think it will have much effect on the revolutionary side. All the ethnic revolutionary forces are trying to eliminate the dictatorship from Myanmar.”
Since the February 2021 coup, the junta has relied heavily on China and Russia for diplomatic and military support, while the revolutionary forces have struggled to gain meaningful backing from the international community. Efforts to forge a unified front with ethnic armed groups have also faced challenges.
The handover of Lashio to the junta, carried out under Chinese pressure and without a single shot fired, stands as a stark illustration of Beijing’s growing leverage over Myanmar’s internal affairs. For the heroes of the Spring Revolution, the loss of comrades in the Lashio battle is unlikely to be easily forgotten or consoled.